Crescimento econômico e turismo na América Latina e no Caribe

uma análise comparativa usando técnicas de agrupamento e testes de causalidade

Autores

  • Martin Olivera Berthier Universidad de la Reopublica https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9893-3233
  • Juan Gabriel Brida Grupo de Investigación en Dinámica Económica (GIDE). Departamento de Métodos Cuantitativos Facultad de Cien-cias Económicas y de Administración Universidad de la República (UdelaR), Uruguay. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2319-5790
  • Verónica Segarra Grupo de Investigación en Dinámica Económica (GIDE). Departamento de Métodos Cuantitativos, Facultad de Cien-cias Económicas y de Administración, Universidad de la República (UdelaR), Uruguay. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0436-3303

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.7784/rbtur.v15i1.2300

Palavras-chave:

Crescimento econômico, Turismo, Dinâmica do regime, Análise de cluster, Causalidade, América Latina.

Resumo

A partir del creciente interés en el estudio de la dinámica del turismo y sus implicancias en el crecimiento económico, este trabajo busca aportar en esa línea para el caso particular de América Latina y el Caribe, una región en constante proceso de desarrollo. A partir de un estudio utilizando el concepto de regímenes económicos y simbolización de series temporales, se propone realizar un análisis de cluster y una posterior estimación de las relaciones dinámicas existentes entre el crecimiento económico y el turismo para 22 países de América Latina y el Caribe entre 1995-2015. Los resultados muestran la existencia de dos grupos de países con un comportamiento dinámico similar que, a su vez, no parecen converger en el tiempo. Se observa la existencia de una relación causal positiva unidireccional desde el crecimiento hacia el turismo en el grupo de turismo bajo y una relación bidireccional también positiva en el caso del grupo con turismo elevado.

Downloads

Não há dados estatísticos.

Biografia do Autor

Martin Olivera Berthier, Universidad de la Reopublica

He is a Research Assistant of Grupo de Investigación en Dinámica Económica (GIDE). Departamento de Métodos Cuantitativos, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración, Universidad de la República (UdelaR), Uruguay. He received a bachelor degree in Economics and he is currently a Msc. student in Economics at the UdelaR. His main research areas include tourism economics and dynamics quantitative methods.

Juan Gabriel Brida, Grupo de Investigación en Dinámica Económica (GIDE). Departamento de Métodos Cuantitativos Facultad de Cien-cias Económicas y de Administración Universidad de la República (UdelaR), Uruguay.

He is a Full Professor of Grupo de Investigación en Dinámica Económica (GIDE). Departamento de Métodos Cuantitativos Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración Universidad de la República (UdelaR), Uruguay. He received his PhD in Economics from the University of Siena, in Italy. His research interests and expertise include the areas of tourism economics and economic dynamics.

Verónica Segarra, Grupo de Investigación en Dinámica Económica (GIDE). Departamento de Métodos Cuantitativos, Facultad de Cien-cias Económicas y de Administración, Universidad de la República (UdelaR), Uruguay.

She is an Assistant Professor of Grupo de Investigación en Dinámica Económica (GIDE). Departamento de Métodos Cuantitativos, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración, Universidad de la República (UdelaR), Uruguay. She is a PhD student in Economics (University of Murcia, UM, Spain), and she received a Msc. in Economics from the UdelaR. She is a member of Grupo de Investigación en Dinámica Económica (GIDE) and Grupo de Investigación en Administración y Economía del Turismo (GAET). Her research interests include economic dynamics and tourism economics.

Referências

Amaghionyeodiwe, L.A. (2012). A causality analysis of tourism as a long-run economic growth factor in Jamai-ca. Tourism Economics, 18(5), 1125-1133. https://doi.org/10.5367/te.2012.0155

Apergis, N. & Payne, J.E. (2012). Tourism and growth in the Caribbean evidence from a panel error correction model. Tourism Economics, 18(2), 449-456. https://doi.org/10.5367/te.2012.0119

Arellano, M., & Bond, S., (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. Rev. Econ. Stud. 58, 277–297 https://doi.org/10.2307/2297968

Arellano, M., & Bover, O., (1995). Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models. J. Econometrics, 68, 29–51. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01642-D

Balaguer, J. & Cantavella-Jordá, M. (2002). Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: the Spanish case. Applied Economics, 34, 877-884. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840110058923

Baltagi, B. (2005). Econometric Analysis of panel data. (Third Edition). John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Bella, G. (2018). Estimating the tourism induced environmental Kuznets curve in France. Journal of Sustaina-ble Tourism, 26(12), 2043-2052. https://doi.org/10.1080/09669582.2018.1529768

Brida, J.G., Brindis, M., Mejía, M.L. & Zapata Aguirre, S. (2017). La contribución del Turismo al crecimiento económico de Colombia: análisis por ramas características del sector utilizando CST. Revista de Es-tudios Regionales, 109, 121-138.

Brida, J.G., Cortes-Jimenez, I. Y Pulina, M. (2016). Has the tourism-led growth hypothesis been validated? A literature review. Current Issues in Tourism, 19(5), 394-430. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2013.868414

Brida, J.G., Garrido, N. & Matesanz, D. (2015). Análisis jerárquico de la dinámica económica de las comuni-dades españolas en el periodo 1955-2009. Investigaciones Regionales- Journal of Regional Re-search, 31, 121-141.

Brida, J.G., Gonzalez, M.N. & Lanzilotta, B. (2017). Análisis de los determinantes del turismo interno en Uru-guay. Revista de estudios regionale, 108, 43-78.

Brida, J.G., Lanzilotta, B., Pereyra, J.S. & Pizzolón, F. (2015). A nonlinear approach to the tourism-led growth hypothesis: the case of MERCOSUR. Current Issues in Tourism, 18(7), 647-666. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2013.802765

Brida, J.G., Lanzilotta, B. & Pizzolon, F. (2016). Dynamic relationship between tourism and economic growth in MERCOSUR countries: a nonlinear approach based on asymmetric time series models. Economics Bulletin, 36(2), 879-894.

Brida, J.G., Lanzilotta, B. & Risso, W.A. (2008). Turismo y crecimiento económico: el caso de Uruguay. PASOS: revista de turismo y patrimonio cultural, 6(3), 481-492. https://doi.org/10.25145/j.pasos.2008.06.036

Brida, J.G., London, S. & Risso, W.A. (2010). Economic Performance clubs in the Americas: 1955-2003. CEPAL Review, 101, 39-57. https://doi.org/10.18356/142f7324-en

Brida, J.G. & Monterubbianesi, D.P. (2010). Causality between economic growth and tourism expansion: Em-pirical evidence form some Colombian regions. Journal of Tourism Challenges and Trends, III (1), 153-164.

Brida, J.G., Olivera, M. & Segarra, V. (2020). Crecimiento económico y turismo en América Latina y el Caribe: un análisis comparativo mediante técnicas de simbolización y agrupamiento de datos. Revista de Es-tudios Regionales. Aceptado para su publicación.

Brida, J.G., Pereyra, S.J., Risso, W.A., Such-Devesa, M.J. & Zapata-Aguirre, S. (2009). “The tourism led growth hypothesis: Empirical evidence from Colombia. Tourisms: An International Multidisciplinary. Journal of Tourism, 4(2), 13-27.

Brida, J.G., Puchet, M. & Punzo, L.F. (2003). Coding economic dynamics to represent regime dynamics: a teach-yourself exercise”. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 14(2), 133-157. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0954-349X(03)00003-1

Brida, J.G., Punzo, L.F. & Risso, W.A. (2011). Tourism as a factor of growth: The case of Brazil. Tourism Eco-nomics, 17(6), 1375-1386. https://doi.org/10.5367/te.2011.0094

Brida, J.G. & Punzo, L.F. (2008). Multiregime dynamics: modelling and statistical tools Brazilian Journal of Business Economics- BJBE, 8(1), 15-28.

Brida, J.G. & Risso, W.A. (2009). Tourism as a factor of long-run economic growth: An empirical analysis for Chile. European Journal of Tourism Research, 2(2), 178 -185.

Brida, J.G., Risso, W.A. & Schubert, F.S. (2010). The impacts of international tourism demand on economic growth of small economies dependent of tourism. Tourism Management, 32(2), 377-385. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2010.03.007

Brida, J.G., Sanchez-Carrera, E. & Risso, W.A. (2008). Tourism's Impact on Long-Run Mexican Economic Growth Economics Bulletin, 3(21), 1-8. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1076225

Blundell, R. & Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Jour-nal of Econometrics, 87, 115-143 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00009-8

Calinski, R.B. & Harabasz, J.A. (1974): Dendrite method for cluster analysis: Communications in Statistics- Theory and Methods, 3(1), 1-27. https://doi.org/10.1080/03610927408827101

Castro-Nuño, M., Molina-Toucedo, J.A. & Pablo-Romero, M.P. (2013). Tourism and GDP: A meta-analysis of panel data studies. Journal of Travel Research, 52(6), 745-758. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287513478500

Chiang, G.N., Sung, W.Y. & Lei, W.G. (2017). Regime-Switching Effect of Tourism Specialization on Economic Growth in Asia Pacific Countries. Economies, 5(3), 23. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies5030023

Chingarande, A. & Saayman, A. (2018). Critical success factors for tourism led growth. International Journal of Tourism Research, 20(6), 800-818. https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.2233

Chiu, Y.B. & Yeh, L.T. (2017). The threshold effects of the tourism-led growth hypothesis: Evidence from a cross-sectional model. Journal of Travel Research, 56(5), 625-637. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287516650938

Comerio, N. & Strozzi, F. (2019). Tourism and its economic impact: A literature review using bibliometric tools. Tourism Economics, 25(1), 109-131. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816618793762

Croes, R. & Vanegas Sr, M. (2008). Cointegration and causality between tourism and poverty reduction. Jour-nal of Travel Research, 47, 94-103. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287507312429

Cruz-Chávez, G. (2016). Turismo Extranjero y crecimiento económico en México. Evidencia empírica para Los Cabos. Economía, Sociedad y Territorio, XVI (50), 1-38. https://doi.org/10.22136/est0502016755

Daw Cs, Finney, C.E.A. & Tracy, E.R. (2003). A review of symbolic analysis of experimental data. Review of Scientific Instruments, 74, 916-930. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.1531823

De Vita, G. & Kyaw, K.S. (2017). Tourism specialization, absorptive capacity, and economic growth. Journal of Travel Research, 56(4), 423-435. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287516650042

Duda, R.O. & Hart, P.E. (1973). Pattern Classification and Scene Analysis. Wiley, New York.

Dumitrescu, E. & Hurlin, C. (2002). Testing of Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels. Economic Mod-elling. 29(4), 1450-1460. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.02.014

Eugenio-Martín, Jl. & Martín-Morales, N. (2004). Tourism and economic growth in Latin America countries: a panel data approach. FEEM Working Paper No. 26/2004. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.504482

Eyuboglu, S. & Eyuboglu, K. (2019). Tourism development and economic growth: an asymmetric panel causali-ty test. Current Issues in Tourism, 1-7. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2019.1588863

Fahimi, A., Saint-Akadiri, S., Seraj, M. & Akadiri, A.C. (2018). Testing the role of tourism and human capital development in economic growth. A panel causality study of microstates. Tourism Management. Per-spectives, 28, 62-70. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2018.08.004

Fonseca, N. & Sánchez-Rivero, M. (2020). Significance bias in the tourism-led growth literature. Tourism Eco-nomics, 26(1). https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816619833564

Gardella, R. & Aguayo, E. (2002). Impacto económico del turismo en el Mercosur y Chile (1990-2000). Estudi-os Económicos de Desarrollo internacional, 2(1), 27-49.

Ghartey, E.E. (2013). Effects of tourism, economic growth, real exchange rate, structural changes and hurri-canes in Jamaica. Tourism Economics. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.5367/te.2013.0228

Gül, H. & Özer, M. (2018). Frequency domain causality analysis of tourism and economic activity in Turkey. European Journal of Tourism Research, 19, 86-97

Im, K.S., Pesaran, M.H., & Shin, Y. (2003), Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of Economet-rics, 115, 53–74. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(03)00092-7

Jackman, M. (2012). Revisiting the tourism-led growth hypothesis for Barbados: A disaggregated market ap-proach. Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, 12(2), 15-26.

Jackman, M. & Lorde, T. (2010). On the relationship between tourist flows and household expenditure in Bar-bados: A dynamic OLS approach. Economics Bulletin, 30, 1-9.

Jiménez García, M., Peña Sánchez, A.R. & Ruiz Chico, J. (2015). Factores incidentes en la recuperación turísti-ca en la actual crisis en las diferentes regiones europeas, un análisis estático. Revista de estudios re-gionales, 104, 33-57

Karimi, M.S. (2018). The Linkage Between Tourism Development and Economic Growth in Malaysia: A Nonlin-ear Approach. International Economic Journal, 32(1), 53-65. https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2018.1440411

Kruskal, J.B. (1956). On the shortest spanning tree of a graph and the traveling salesman problem. Proceed-ings of the American Mathematical Society, 7, 48-50. https://doi.org/10.1090/S0002-9939-1956-0078686-7

Kumar, R.R. & Stauvermann, P.J. (2016). The linear and non-linear relationship between of tourism demand and output per worker: A study of Sri Lanka. Tourism Management Perspectives, 19, 109-120. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2016.05.005

Lee, Cc & Chang, Co. (2008). Tourism development and economic growth: a closer look at panels. Tourism Management, 29, 180-192. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2007.02.013

Levin, A., Lin, C.F., & Chu, C. (2002). Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108, 1–24. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(01)00098-7

Li, K.X., Jin, M. & Shi, W. (2018). Tourism as an important impetus to promoting economic growth: Acritical review. Tourism Management Perspectives, 26, 135-142. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2017.10.002

Lorde, T., Francis, B. & Drakes, L. (2011). Tourism services exports and economic growth in Barbados. The International Trade Journal, 25(2), 205-232. https://doi.org/10.1080/08853908.2011.554788

Mantegna, R.N. (1999). Hierarchical structure in financial markets. The European Physical Journal B, 11, 193-197. https://doi.org/10.1007/s100510050929

Mantegna, R.N. & Stanley, H. (2000). An introduction to Econophysics: Correlations and Complexity in Fi-nance. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511755767

Mitra, Sk. (2019). Is Tourism Led-Growth Hypothesis still valid?. International Journal of Tourism Research, 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.2285

Molgedey, L. & Ebeling, W. (2000). Local Order, Entropy and Predictability of Financial Time Series. The Euro-pean Physical Journal B, 15, 733-737. https://doi.org/10.1007/s100510051178

Muslija, A., Satrovic, E. & Erbas, C.Ü. (2017). Panel analysis of tourism-economic growth Nexus. Uluslararasi Ekonomik Arastirmalar Dergisi, 3(4), 535-545.

Piccardi, C. (2004). On the control of chaotic systems via symbolic time series analysis. Chaos, 14(4), 1026-1034. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.1796071

Ramirez, J. (2006). Actividad económica del sector turístico mexicano: situación actual, tendencias y cointe-gración. Aportes, Revista de la Facultad de Economía, BUAP No. 31-32, Enero - Abril y Mayo - Agosto de 2006

Ridderstaat, J., Croes, R. Y Nijkamp, P. (2013). Tourism and long-run economic growth in Aruba. International Journal of Tourism Research. 16(5), 472-487 https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.1941

Risso, W.A. (2018). Tourism and Economic Growth: A Worldwide Study”. Tourism Analysis, 23(1), 123-135. https://doi.org/10.3727/108354218X15143857349828

Risso, W.A. (2019). Symbolic time series analysis and its application in social sciences. Time Series Analysis and Applications. Zagreb. Croatia: InTech, 107-126. https://doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.70826

Rosero-Barzola, C & Zúñiga-Contreras, I. (2014). Análisis del Tourism Led Growth Hypothesis: caso Ecuador (Trabajo de titulación). Facultad de Economía y Ciencias Empresariales, Universidad de Espaciali-dades Espíritu Santo, Ecuador.

Rosselló-Nadal, J. & He, J. (2019). Tourist arrivals versus tourist expenditures in modelling tourism demand. Torurism Economics, 1-16. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816619867810

Seetanah, B., Nunkoo, R., Sannassee, R.V., Georges, P. & Jaffur, W. (2017). A meta-analysis of the tourism and economic growth Nexus. BEST EN Think Tank XVII: Innovation and Progress in Sustainable Tourism, 180-206.

Skrinjaric, T. (2019). Examining the Causal Relationship between Tourism and Economic Growth: Spillover Index Approach for Selected CEE and SEE Countries. Economies, 7(1), 1-19. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies7010019

Sokhanvar, A., Ciftcioglu, S. & Javid, E. (2018). Another look at tourism-economic development Nexus. Tour-ism Management Perspectives, 26, 97-106. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2018.03.002

Tang, C.F. & Lau, E. (2017). Modelling the demand for inbound medical tourism: The case of Malaysia. Interna-tional Journal of Tourism Research, 19(5), 584-593. https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.2131

Tang, C.F. & Tan, E.C. (2018). Tourism-Led growth hypothesis: A new global evidence. Cornell Hospitality Quar-terly, 59(3), 304-311. https://doi.org/10.1177/1938965517735743

Tang, X.Z., Tracy, E.R. & Brown, R. (1997). Symbol Statistics and Spatio-Temporal Systems. PhysicaD, 102, 253-261. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-2789(96)00201-1

Zhang, J. & Cheng, L. (2019). Threshold Effect of Tourism Development on Economic Growth Following a Dis-aster Shock: Evidence from the Wenchuan Earthquake, PR China. Sustainability, 11(2), 371. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11020371

Wu, P.C., Liu, S. Y., Hsiao, J.M. & Huang, T.Y. (2016). Nonlinear and time-varying growth-tourism causality. An-nuals of Tourism Research, 59, 45-59. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2016.04.005

Downloads

Publicado

2021-01-14

Como Citar

Berthier, M. O., Brida, J. G. ., & Segarra, V. (2021). Crescimento econômico e turismo na América Latina e no Caribe: uma análise comparativa usando técnicas de agrupamento e testes de causalidade. Revista Brasileira De Pesquisa Em Turismo, 15(1), 2300. https://doi.org/10.7784/rbtur.v15i1.2300

Edição

Seção

Fast track - Workshop Tourism: Economics and Management