A demanda turística de México e Uruguai
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.7784/rbtur.v13i3.1582Palavras-chave:
Demanda turística, Cointegração, Taxa de câmbio real, México, Uruguai, JEL: C32, F14, F41.Resumo
O principal objetivo deste documento é estimar a demanda do México e do Uruguai, dois países muito diferentes, mas o turismo para ambos é uma atividade relevante, e também os turistas vêm principalmente de um grande vizinho. Procuramos analisar se os determinantes da demanda turística diferem em função do tamanho do país, ou se ser um país vizinho é o principal determinante. Portanto, analisamos a relação entre o número de turistas norte-americanos que visitam o México e turistas argentinos que visitam o Uruguai, considerando o nível de renda dos turistas e a taxa de câmbio real bilateral (TCR) entre o país visitante e o anfitrião, seguindo a metodologia de Johansen. A partir daí, encontramos uma relação de cointegração para cada país, onde a elasticidade-renda resultou maior que 2 para turistas americanos no México e quase 3 para turistas argentinos no Uruguai. As TCRs bilaterais também foram significativas em ambos os modelos. Além disso, as projeções estimadas mostram as consequências das mudanças institucionais no setor de turismo. A chegada do presidente Macri ao poder foi positiva para os turistas argentinos que visitaram o Uruguai, mas a chegada do presidente Trump aos Estados Unidos foi negativa para os turistas americanos que visitaram o México.
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